Should Quantitative Risk Analysis be Compulsory in the NCC 2022?


With the next update of the NCC due in 2022, the Omnii Team provided the below response and commentary as part of the NCC Public Comment Draft consultation period.

NCC Volume 1 – Clause A8

Omnii Comment:

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) involves a two-step process, which are:

  • calculation framework and
  • the database (benchmark).

The current proposal is only focused on the calculation framework without a detailed database to support the intention. In the absence of such data, the following negative outcomes can be expected (to name a few):

  • as the data isn’t standardised, two engineers preparing the same Performance Solution might produce different answers (i.e. poor consistency)
  • as the data is limited, some assessments might conclude that something meets the Performance Requirements when in reality it is unsafe (i.e. poor quality).

The current state-of-the-art fire statistics applicable to the Australian industry is very limited and not widely available, which may involve but not be limited to:

  • fire load densities
  • benefits and the probability of active fire safety measures controlling a fire
  • number of fire incidents and their cause (eg. the hazard that caused the fire and location)
  • fire brigade call-out due to false alarm events and real events
  • number of deaths and property damage due to fire events
  • incidents involving brigade personnel being affected during an intervention
  • incidents involving fire spread to adjacent buildings
  • has the risk/impact increased due to a Performance Solution or NCC DTS provisions.
NCC 2022

The current ncc 2022 proposal is only focused on the calculation framework without a detailed database to support the intention.

The ABCB and their associated parties must focus on developing an accurate and up-to-date database of the above before proposing to undertake QRA. The probabilities of such events and impact could be measured and assessed for real scenarios rather than assuming hypothetical fire scenarios. In addition, the current method of undertaking quantitative verification assessment method must be streamlined before proposing new methodologies.

We would welcome the opportunity to support the ABCB and would be willing to participate in any industry working groups, market testing and consultation process.